With the ruling alliance partners the People's Democratic Party and the Congress pitted against each other, the north Kashmir Parliamentary constituency of Baramulla is set to witness a triangular contest with the National Conference hoping to bank on the vote divide between the PDP and the Congress.
Even though there is hardly anything outstanding in past performance that the NC could depend on, an anti-incumbency factor of sorts together with the attrition between the PDP and Congress could help sitting MP Abdur Rasheed Shaheen.
But on Saturday, the party received a set back when MLA Dilawar Mir openly supported the PDP candidate Nizam-ud-Din Bhat. Bhat belongs to Bandipora assembly segment of the constituency.
Some insiders argue the NC's decision not to field former minister Chowdhary Muhammad Ramzan has been creating heartburn among his supporters and that could cost precious votes.
"The bitterness between the alliance partners is definitely going to help us. But we have to work hard. We should not take things lightly," says NC worker Mohammad Youssuf.
The PDP on the other hand argues that its strongly pro-Kashmiri antecedents will help its candidate.
"The Srinagar-Muzaffarabad road passes through Baramulla and this is an emotional issue the people will not ignore," said Bhat.
The Congress has fielded octogenarian leader Ghulam Rasool Kar and hopes the Pahiri belt especially in Uri would predominantly vote for its candidate.
"The priorities of the people living close to the borders are different. They want to carry on with their agriculture without shells flying around from Indian and Pakistani positions. Agreed that the opening of the Muzaffarabad road is a big issue here, but why would that go against us?" asked a Congress supporter.
In light of a pro-active boycott campaign by separatist leaders including Syed Ali Shah Geelani and the Jamu and Kashmir Liberation Front chief Mohammad Yassin Malik elections are a low-key affair in this border constituency.
There is nothing in Baramulla that could be called a wave or a swing. Given the hardening postures between the Congress and the PDP and the reported internal bickering in the National Conference, pollsters are not willing to guess the outcome.
"Anyone could win, but that would depend on how local issues are ultimately played up by the contestants. Emotions have stopped ruling the minds of Kashmiris as poll promises have always turned out to be mirages," said a keen Kashmir watcher here.
This constituency goes to polls April 20. It has an electorate of 940,998 including 523,161 male voters and 417,837 female voters. The election will be overseen by 5,000 poll staff and some 20,000 security personnel.
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