Monsoon seen below normal, to arrive on June 1

India, hit by a devastating drought last year that hurt economic growth, is expected to experience a below normal monsoon this year, but no drought is forecast, the weather office said on Wednesday.

The rains are forecast to hit the southern Kerala coast on June 1. June 1 is when the monsoon normally begins.

"It (the monsoon) is expected to be 96 per cent of the long-period average which falls into the below normal category," R R Kelkar, director general of the India Meteorological Department told a news conference. "The drought parameter is below 90 per cent."

Last year, India suffered its worst drought in 15 years, a factor that pushed economic growth down in 2002-03 to 4.4 per cent from 5.6 per cent the previous year. A good monsoon is vital to the economy as agriculture contributes around 25 per cent to GDP.

Last year, India suffered its worst drought in 15 years which hit food output, leading to lower economic growth of 4.4 per cent, down from 5.6 per cent the previous year.

The southwest monsoon is vital to India's economic health as agriculture contributes around 25 per cent to gross domestic product and employs some 70 per cent of its more than one billion population.

The monsoon last year was 19 per cent below normal, resulting in drought-like conditions in 29 per cent of the country, the weather office has said.

The impact of the drought can be seen in government estimates for India's food output.

Overall food production in 2002-03 (July-June) is seen falling to 184.06 million tonne from a record 212.02 million tonne the previous year.

Oilseed production in the crop year that began last November is seen dropping to 15.57 million tonne from 20.46 million tonne the previous year.