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Cracks in the NDA

Now that the hype over President Bill Clinton's visit has more or less subsided, it is time we picked up the threads of Indian politics. We left off when the BJP made the Gujarat government withdraw a circular which allowed state public servants to join the RSS. There was also an announcement by the RSS that it was not bothered whether government employees attended its shakhas or not.

It is obvious that the BJP could not handle the fallout of the circular in the National Democratic Alliance. Left to the party, it would have extended the same leeway to government employees at the Centre as Gujarat had done. The matter was reportedly discussed at a Cabinet meeting informally. The opposition was stiff. Even the BJP's blind supporter, the Akali Dal from Punjab, was vehement in its criticism against the circular.

That the BJP used all its resources to resist the pressure on the withdrawal of the circular was clear from the stance it took in Parliament. The two Houses did not function for more than a week because of the BJP's refusal to discuss the RSS issue. Still, the party stood firm.

It changed its stance only when it found that its main allies, the Telugu Desam, the DMK and the Trinamool Congress would not side with the BJP if it came to voting on the motion which the Congress had moved. The Samata Party of Socialist George Fernandes worked hard to muster support for the RSS. But nothing worked.

The exercise on the RSS was the BJP's maiden effort to go beyond the common agenda which debars the BJP from tinkering with personal laws and Article 370 regarding special status for Kashmir. Now the BJP is in a bind. It cannot extend to the RSS, the party's mentor, any official recognition. Still worse, if it wants to stay in power, it cannot go beyond the common agenda which its allies endorsed before the general election.

There is yet another side to the difference. For the first time, ideological contradictions have surfaced among the NDA constituents. In the first stint of the NDA, the dictation by AIADMK chief J Jayalalitha was personal. Vajpayee yielded to her whims and even went to the extent of splitting the revenue department to give her nominee charge of the enforcement directorate. No ideology was involved. This time the BJP is faced with a basic and far more serious question.

Again, ideological differences seem to have appeared on the cut-back in food and fertiliser subsidies. Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha has said there will be no roll back. The prime minister has supported him. Both want to follow the formula which the World Bank and the IMF have indicated to New Delhi. The NDA members do not subscribe to it. The demand to continue subsidies for food and fertilisers may be met soon. Sinha has already said the government is willing to go half way.

The BJP tires to mend the cracks within the NDA when they develop. But ideological differences have a tendency to reappear in one form or the other because they relate to conviction and commitment. The chinks in the NDA armour have encouraged the Congress and it has begun to discuss the possibilities of an alternative. The party believes that Laloo Prasad Yadav from Bihar, a new ally, will come in handy.

If the Telugu Desam, the DMK and the Trinamool Congress can constitute a common platform, they may not find the Congress wanting. As for the insistence on Sonia Gandhi heading a non-BJP government, the attitude now is: With Sonia Gandhi if possible, without her if necessary.

Sharad Pawar, waiting in the wings, must be regretting his revolt against Sonia Gandhi. If he had only waited! The party has realised after the debacle in the assembly election in Bihar and Orissa that Sonia is not clicking with the masses. Most leaders in the party want her to be the president, nothing more. Her induction of loyalist Arjun Singh into the Rajya Sabha is an attempt to retrieve lost ground. But it may not succeed because the non-BJP parties do not seem to accept her as prime minister.

Laloo, a new convert, is enthusiastic about Sonia since she gave him support in the face of serious opposition within the party, more so in Bihar. But Sonia herself is said to have come to the conclusion that she cannot be the prime minister. The Congress anxiety to find an alternative to the BJP has her blessings. She is convinced that throwing out the Vajpayee government is far more important than waiting till she or some other Congressman can head the government. The systematic penetration by the RSS elements into educational, cultural and social outfits has frightened her.

A few Congressmen have thrown up the name of Chandra Shekhar for the time being, until there is a consensus on someone suitable. The fault in such an arrangement is that the interim candidate indulges in all types of manoeuvres to stay put. P V Narasimha Rao is an example. He managed to finish the full five-year tenure.

The real point against Chandra Shekhar is that his has been the most corrupt government since Independence. His claim that his government did in 40 days what others could not do in 40 years is correct, but only with respect to dishonesty. Former CBI official N K Singh, a man of impeccable integrity, has said in his book that Chandra Shekhar personally rang up his director to stop him (N K Singh) from questioning godman Chandra Swami on shady deals.

The person who can be an ideal choice is Chandrababu Naidu. He has already proved his mettle in Andhra Pradesh. The Congress may have reservations about him because the party's main rival in AP is the Telugu Desam. His exit will certainly make the Congress stronger in AP.

Much will depend on how soon the cracks in the NDA begin to yawn. The RSS seems to have burnt its fingers. It may not pressurise the BJP or, for that matter Vajpayee, further. Realising that L K Advani, much less Murli Manohar Joshi, will not be acceptable to the NDA allies, the RSS may stay content in planting its hardcore members here and there. It has been able to pash several of its staunch followers in Tuesday's Rajya Sabha election.

The real decision depends on the Telugu Desam, the DMK and the Trinamool Congress, How long will they remain quiet after having noticed the methodical induction of the RSS elements into the government and the government-aided agencies is a matter of conjecture. Their faith in Vajpayee has been shaken after his statement that the RSS is a cultural organisation. But they have no separate platform. Nor have they any particular person whom they can project as prime minister. However disillusioned, Vajpayee is still their best bet.

On the other hand, Vajpayee has the knack of refurbishing his liberal image. His warning to the Sangh Parivar not to cross the Lakshman Rekha might have hit hard. If not, the entire edifice of the NDA may be in danger. After all, the BJP's own strength is only 182 in a 546 member Lok Sabha. At one time, it was taken for granted that there was no danger to the government for at least three years. Now it looks as if the guess was too optimistic.

Kuldip Nayar