NEWSLINKS US EDITION SOUTH ASIA COLUMNISTS DIARY SPECIALS INTERVIEWS CAPITAL BUZZ REDIFF POLL DEAR REDIFF THE STATES ELECTIONS ARCHIVES SEARCH REDIFF
"The United States and its allies will be loath to press President Pervez Musharraf to undertake further actions against the Kashmiri mujahideen groups as long as they need his cooperation to continue regional operations against Al Qaeda," said the 365-page survey, released on Thursday by Dr John Chipman, Director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, at a news conference in London.
"At the same time, Washington will continue to regard India as a more stable and reliable regional partner than Pakistan in the longer term," it said.
"Strategically, the coming year on the subcontinent holds both promise and peril for India, Pakistan and the US. Unless Pakistan evinces some willingness to address India's concerns about cross-border infiltration, the Indian political leadership, despite American and other external pressures, will undertake few, if any, efforts to address the grievances of the Kashmiris," it said.
While the US would naturally counsel India military restraint, it is unlikely to exert heavy pressure on India to relax its "wait and watch" posture if Musharraf does not stop cross-border terrorism, the survey observed.
The survey noted that although Musharraf, under tremendous Indian and American pressure, did ban the Jaish-e-Mohammed and the Lashkar-e-Tayiba, he categorically declined to abandon Pakistan's support to Kashmiri insurgents and steadfastly refused to hand over 20 alleged terrorists sought by New Delhi.
"But Musharraf did place about 2,000 Islamic radicals under preventive detention and closed down a number of the madrassas that effectively served as recruiting and training grounds for terrorists -- measures that he would not have taken prior to the December 13 attack on Indian Parliament," the survey said.
"In February, Musharraf also began to disband the Afghanistan and Kashmir units of the ISI, which absorbed at least 4,000 of an estimated 10,000 total ISI personnel. The ISI has been Pakistan's principal vehicle of support for the Taliban and for Kashmiri rebels," the survey stated, adding, "some senior ISI officers continue to harbour sympathy for both groups as well as Al-Qaeda."
It said some Western intelligence agencies consider the ISI a virtual "rogue government".
"On balance, a deadlock is likely to prevail in Indo-Pakistani relations through 2003. This paralysis could adversely affect India's efforts to broaden and deepen its political and military relationship with the US. Longer-term strategic stability on the subcontinent will depend on whether Musharraf stays in power," it said.
"A coup is unlikely, as is a military revolt or a popular uprising, but he remains vulnerable, like Anwar Sadat [president of Egypt] in 1981, to an assassin's bullet. In that case, Pakistan would probably retrench to a more anti-secular, anti-American posture," the study added.
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