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Is Dravid going the Manjrekar way?

Dravid's role in the Indian Test team is clearly defined, understood and accepted by all. Barring the recent hiccups, which can be clearly accepted as due to a temporary loss of form, one can say, with a fair degree of certainty, that his recent run of Test scores, which reads 48, 1, 33, 12, 3, 6, 9, 1, 29, 0, 22, 37, 17, 18, is an aberration and he will have his next run of 10 innings averaging 50-plus by the end of the year.

Dravid's performances in Test cricket, especially outside India, are superior to those of the Little Master even. His average until the end of 1999 was great. He has no problems in planning a Test innings. His defence is immaculate and he can play strokes when required. I believe that it is Dravid, rather than Tendulkar, who will overtake Gavaskar's highest score of 236.

First, a new index for analysis. The extensive research we have done in our Simulation engine and Data Base systems has led us to a simple, easy to understand Index. Let us name this as Batsman Composite Index. This will enable one to understand the true value of batsmen. It would be easy to truly understand the value of the batsmen who are sheet anchors and the batsmen who are the attacking ones. Of course, if one gets great attacking batsmen with high averages, such as Richards, Tendulkar, Lara, Bevan et al, we can count our blessings at having seen true greatness.

The BCI for a batsman is a simple product of the Batting Average and the Strike Rate. Our studies show that there is a strong correlation between BCI and a player's contribution and value to the team. Given below are the BCI values for a selection of few batsmen across the years. The collection represents a clear mix of anchor batsmen and attacking batsmen.

Bewan	43.5
Richards	41.7
Tendulkar	36.3
Lara	33.6
Jones	32.7
Saeed Anwar	32.4
Lloyd	31.3
Gilchrist	29.8
Mark Waugh	29.1
Hick	29.0
Inzamam	28.6
Azharuddin	27.2
Haynes	26.4
Jayasuriya	25.4

The list is self-explanatory. The greats are all there. Our observation is that the good batsman should have a BCI of well over 25. The great batsman have BCI of over 30. The truly great have values above 35.

Now for a critical look at Dravid.

This article deals with Dravid's role in one-day matches. When one sees Dravid bat in ODIs, it is clear that something is missing. It could be that the selectors are not clear with Dravid's role in the Indian team; it could be that the coach and the captain do not have a clear idea of the role he wants Dravid to play; it could also be that Dravid himself does not know the role he has to play. If this is left as it is now, Dravid could become another Sanjay Manjrekar.

Let us look at Dravid's career summary:

Year	Mat	Inn	No	Runs	Balls	100	50	< 10	HS	Ave	Strt	BCI
1996	20	19	2	475	683	0	3	6	90	27.94	69.5	19.4
1997	31	26	2	951	1493	1	9	5	107	39.62	63.7	25.2
1998	14	13	0	283	516	0	1	6	64	21.77	54.8	11.9
1999	43	43	5	1761	2342	6	14	9	153	46.34	75.2	34.8
2000	20	19	0	615	1010	0	5	4	79	32.37	60.9	19.7
1999	43	43	5	1761	2342	6	13	9	153	46.34	75.2	34.8
Rest	85	77	4	2324	3702	1	16	21	107	31.84	62.3	19.8
All	128	120	9	4085	6044	7	29	30	153	36.80	67.6	24.9

Dravid has had one great year in one-day internationals. In 1999, whatever he touched turned to gold. Wonderful figures. A great year by any standards. His centuries were big ones, scored at very good rates. A great World Cup as a bonus. This year has singlehandedly pushed Dravid's career figures up to their current levels.

Look at the rest of the career. A very average one. Unfortunately Dravid has reverted back to his pre-1999 playing ways. Unlike the Test situation, this is not a temporary loss of form. This is rather an identity crisis, which has to be resolved at the earliest.

It is my firm belief that no team in the 30-year history of ODI cricket has succeeded without a judicious blending of sheet anchor batsmen and attacking batsmen. Having an array of attacking batsmen may enable a team win a few of the matches, but not become a great team winning World Cups, tournaments or series consistently. The role of the sheet anchor has always been recognized by good coaches and captains.

The all-conquering West Indian teams of the late 70s and early 80s had two of the most attacking batsmen the world has ever seen in Richards and Lloyd. Both had strike rates exceeding 90 and were outstanding match winners in their own right. There has never been a more destructive pair of batsmen in the history of one-day internationals.

However, there is no doubt that one of the major reasons for the overwhelming success of the West Indian teams was the perfect role of sheet anchor played by the openers, Greenidge and Haynes.

Let us look at Greenidge. This applies to Haynes also, since their roles and career figures were similar.

Greenidge's career summary:

Year	Mat	Inn	No	Runs	Balls	100	50	< 10	HS	Ave	Strt	BCI
1975	5	5	0	129	242	0	1	1	55	25.80	53.3	13.8
1976	3	3	0	98	109	0	0	0	42	32.67	89.9	29.4
1977	1	1	0	8	12	0	0	1	8	8.00	66.7	5.3
1979	9	9	2	429	695	1	4	2	106.61	61.29	61.7	37.8
1980	7	79	2	469	751	1	5	0	103	93.80	62.5	58.6
1981	4	4	0	148	246	1	1	2	103	37.00	60.2	22.3
1982	9	9	0	292	510	0	3	4	84	32.44	57.3	18.6
1983	15	15	2	749	1018	2	7	3	115	57.62	73.6	42.4
1984	7	7	0	223	377	0	1	1	63	31.86	59.2	18.8
1985	8	8	1	367	523	1	3	1	110	52.43	70.2	36.8
1986	11	11	0	330	516	0	3	3	74	30.00	64.0	19.2
1987	9	9	1	446	537	3	3	2	133	55.75	83.1	46.3
1988	17	16	3	782	1096	1	7	0	102	60.15	71.4	42.9
1989	11	11	0	399	563	1	3	4	117	36.27	70.9	25.7
1990	6	6	1	156	333	0	1	3	77	31.20	46.8	14.6
1991	6	6	1	109	220	0	0	2	40	21.80	49.5	10.5
All	128	127	13	5134	7748	11	42	29	133	45.04	66.3	29.8

Contrast this with Dravid's figures, especially the high average of Greenidge and the less per cent of "<10" innings. If the average came down, he made up with a good strike rate. It was the stability and anchoring right through the innings that enabled the stroke makers down the order such as Richards, Lloyd and Collis King to score at better than run-a-ball through the later part of the innings.

Other anchors who were extremely valuable to successful teams were Mark Waugh of Australia (who has successfully taken over the mantle of anchor, with the advent of the mercurial Gilchrist); Javed Miandad of Pakistan and Gary Kirsten of South Africa.

Their summary figures are given below.

	Avge	StRt	BCI
Javed Miandad	41.5	67.1	27.9
Mark Waugh	38.2	76.2	29.1
Gary Kirsten	40.1	70.7	28.3

Recently, the value of Yousuf Youhana to the resurgent Pakistani team has emphasized the role of a sheet anchor. Wasim Akram/Moin Khan have clearly given the responsibility of the role Youhana has to play; Miandad supports this and, most important, Youhana knows this. If there is any doubt, let us take one innings to demonstrate this.

In the Asia Cup match against India, Youhana scored a great, tactical 100. Forget about the last ball six. A 100 is only a personal landmark. See how he paced the innings. The first 50 took 90 balls. The next 50 took 22 balls. Did any knowledgeable commentator or spectator worry about the slow rate of scoring in the first half of the innings. He played his role to perfection. It enabled those great little cameos by Moin Khan, Razzaq and Afridi to be played, enabling Pakistan to reach 295. The fact that Youhana contributed to only 35 per cent of the innings does not take away the value of the innings.

Just for interest, Youhana's career summary:

Year	Mat	Inn	No	Runs	Balls	100	50	< 10	HS	Ave	Strt	BCI
1983	13	11	2	479	646	1	5	2	100	53.22	74.1	39.5
1999	19	17	4	570	772	1	4	5	104	43.85	73.8	32.4
2000	29	29	3	886	1340	1	8	8	100	34.08	66.1	22.5
All	61	57	9	1935	2758	3	17	15	104	40.31	70.2	28.3

What should Dravid set his objectives and how can the others help him reach these?

1. Dravid should realize that with his technical competence, the quality of his defensive technique and his stroke-making ability, he should be having career figures which are similar to Gary Kirsten, (ie) an average of 40+ and strike rate of 70+.

2. Let the selectors define Dravid's role. He should be told that he is the rock on which the innings would be built. It should be clearly understood that there would be phases of innings when Dravid might be scoring slowly. Should not matter as long as the team works around the strategy.

3. Ganguly (and Kapil Dev) should understand this and work to implement the policy effectively. Whether Dravid (with Ganguly or Tendulkar) opens the innings is a matter which can be left to the captain depending on the match situation.

4. Dravid should set a personal target that he would work towards an average of 50+ during the next 18 months and a career average of 40. It should be noted that even though this is purely a numbers based target, such targets are needed, especially in one-day cricket. The difference of 10 in average of a top batsman will mean a quite a lot to the team. If Dravid averages 50, the benefit accruing to India would be felt throughout any innings. The fall-out would be very positive.

5. Let the critics and the media give the time to Dravid and the team. Repetitive comments such as "he does not rotate the strike", "he finds fielders always", "he hits the ball too hard" etc. do not help.

6. The role of Dravid as a sheet anchor batsman does not change whether the matches are played in the Indian sub-continent or outside. The strike rates of Dravid and the other attacking batsmen should be adjusted upwards or downwards.

7. A minor point: Dravid also should cut down the percentage of the "Dismissed for less than 10" innings. It now stands at a quite high 25%. This indicates a lack of concentration, especially for an anchoring batsman. For the information of readers, comparative figures of some top order batsmen are given below.

Gilchrist	21/93	22.6 %
Greenidge	29/127	22.8 %
Mark Waugh	49/212	23.1 %
Saeed Anwar	46/199	23.1 %
Lara	39/164	23.8 %
Stewart	30/120	25.0 %
Tendulkar	67/241	27.8 %

Ananth Narayanan