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India, China to outpace Japan in Net growth

Nitish S Rele

In 1999, the number of active Internet users in India was just 270,000. In 2003, it is expected to top 9 million, according to last week's eAsia Report, released by eMarketer.

As a result, Japan will lose its Internet dominance in Asia as India and China outpace it in Internet growth. China's active Internet user base will grow from 2.5 million in 1999 to 21 million by 2003.

Thus, while Japan's Internet base will grow from 10.3 million in 1999 to 31 million by 2003, its share of the Asian Internet market will decrease from 48 to 32 per cent over the same period.

"While computers and wireless telephones are scarce in many parts of India, the growth of wireless communication and cable television will help drive Internet growth for the future," Brian Gilman, senior research analyst at emarketer.com, told rediff.com

"Currently, there are 1.1 million cell phone users in India, according to the Cellular Operators Association of India. This number will reach 10 million by 2007."

Gilman believes the growing use of video e-mail booths in India will allow people without Internet access, in addition to the large illiterate population, the opportunity to send and receive video e-mails at booths for 35 cents.

"If wireless Internet access and cable modem access become realities for India, their potential Internet user base could be substantial," he said.

The recent introduction of "free PC" schemes in India will make personal computers more accessible to a country with a per capita income of $540, said Gilman. "All these factors will help the growth of the Internet and in turn help e-commerce growth."

He quoted figures to stress his case. "In 1999, India realised a mere $19.9 million in e-commerce revenues. Due to the future growth in Internet growth, India will realise $254 million in revenues by 2001."

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